Playoff Possibilities and more! Week 13!

It's the Final Regular Season Week

And some of you may be wondering, can I still get into the playoffs?  Is it  too late for me?  Can I get a first round bye?  I'm likely not going to be able to answer all of your questions, but I'll certainly try my best.

So, without further ado I present to you managers, friends - and the occasional clown - the For Reals Guys League playoff breakdown.

As It Stands Now

Let's go through these by current ranking then and see what happens.

Possible Outcomes:

#1 - DonJulios Underdogs:

• Playoffs are clinched!  The reigning champ currently holds the number one seed, and much like last year it seems to be based on a tie that could have been a loss.
• Worst Possible Outcome for you:
• You lose this game and finish 8-4-1. 
• Both The Rats Nest and Rip Lips win this week and finish 9-4. 
• You lose your first round bye as they will be a half game ahead of you.  This week is important for positioning. 
• Not great Outcome:
• You lose and The Rats Nest and/or Rip Lips ties, both teams are now 8-4-1.
• It's quite likely you will hold the Points For tiebreaker over Rip Lips (unless they score 80+ more than you and still tie.
• It's also quite likely you will not win the Points For tiebreaker against The Rats Nest. 
• In this case you would likely still keep a top-2 seed, so not a large worry.
• Really just focus on winning.  If you can't win then you have to hope at least one of The Rats Nest or Rip Lips loses for you to keep your spot.

#2 - The Rats Nest

• Playoffs clinched. Nothing else is set in stone.
• Read above for most possible outcomes.
• First seed requires a Underdogs loss and a win by The Rats Nest. 
• Third seed could happen from a loss and a win by both Rip Lips and Underdogs.
• Fourth seed could happen from a loss, a win by Mixed Thielens, and Mixed Thielens scoring 190 more than The Rats Nest (good luck).
• It is a lock for seed 1-4.

#3 - Rip Lips

• Top 3 seed with the highest points against, that's solid.
• Playoffs are clinched, division winner is clinched as well.
• Possibility to get a first round bye, you just need The Rats Nest to lose and for you to win, or for Underdogs to lose and your team to score 82+ their total for points tie breaker.
• You cannot fall below 3rd seed.
• Good luck in the playoffs dad!  You're gonna need it.

The Playoff Bubble:

From this point forward we have teams that are all very very close together.  So as opposed to doing this for each post I'm going to issue a few ground rules.

1. The absolute lowest possible W/L ratio to make the playoffs is going to be 6-7.  If you cannot make it to 6-7 you are out.
2. We will have at least two 7-6 teams, so if you can't make 7-6 you are going to have a hard time.
3. Andrew owns the points for tiebreaker as of now.  Points for is going to be very important to this determination.  

We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.

#4 - Mixed Thielens

• You've been on a tear and it has payed off.  You have made the playoffs after starting 1-5. 
• There is a very very outside chance you miss the playoffs.  Follow along this, if you will:
• You lose and drop to 7-6.
• Mustard Tigers, Burn Squad, and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood all win, bringing them to 7-6.
• Burn Squad already owns the tiebreaker.
• Mustard Tigers scores 10 more points than you.
• Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood scores 62 more points than you.
• This will knock you out of the playoffs.
• There is almost no other way for you to lose your spot.  There also does not appear to be a path available for you to make the first round bye.

#5 - Burn Squad

• You are in a very precarious situation.
• You own the tie breaker on every bubble team, so there is a bit more to it than you lose and you are out.  However if you win you are in.
• You cannot get the first round bye.
• How you may lose your playoff spot:
• Lose to drop to 6-7.
• Mustard Tigers win.
• Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood and The Chorne Zhopas tie.  You are out.
• Whichever of Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood vs. The Chorne Zhopas win, will have a 7-6 advantage over you.
• You need to win this week, or lose and hope Mustard Tigers loses as well. If he wins and you lose, you will have an uphill battle.

#6 - Mustard Tigers

• You are the bubble. I strongly suggest you win this week.
• How it may be possible that you lose your spot:
• Lose this week to drop to 6-7.
• Burn Squad just needs to score within 70 points of your score win or lose and he is in.
• One of Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood or The Chorne Zhopas win their game, or they tie.
• You are out.
• This is rather simple, you must win, and depending on the outcome of The Chorne Zhopas and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood you need to score within a range to stay in.
• If Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood wins you need to score within 52 points of their score to stay in.
• If The Chorne Zhopas win you need to score within 89 points of their score to maintain your spot.
• You are in the driver's seat, but you gotta make sure you're paying attention.  It's snowing outside and the transmission is acting up so don't blow it.

On the Outside

In the words of the ever-annoying, post-grunge, teenage angst-driven band Staind, "But I'm on the outside, I'm looking in."  There is a chance for a few of you, but it's small.  Here is what you need to get in.

#7 - Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood

• You've got a big matchup here against The Chorne Zhopas.   
• To get in here is what you must do:
• Tie/Beat The Chorne Zhopas. 
• If you win and Mustard Tigers lose, you will be in.
• If you win and Mustard Tigers win, you need to score 52+ what they score.
• If you tie and Mustard Tigers lose, you will be in.
• If you win, and mustard Tigers win, than you can take Burn Squad's place in the playoffs if he loses.
• So you're going to be hoping for a loss from Burn Squad or Mustard Tigers.  If either of them loses and you win, you're in.

#8 - The Chorne Zhopas

• Incredibly similar to Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood. Really, it may be the same.
• You need to win this week, or tie, and hope for a loss from Mustard Tigers or Burn Squad.  If this happens you are in. 
• You do not have the points necessary to win with a tie-breaker.

#9 - BB Baker's Boys

• This is complicated.  At 5-7 you need a ton of luck.  I mean a ton, this is miracle level.
• To get into the playoffs:
• Burn Squad loses, Mustard Tigers loses.
• You win.
• You will need to have the highest score I have seen to win, and hope that Mustard Tigers and Burn Squad really falls flat.
• Burn Squad has 200+ points over you.  Mustard Tiger has 130+ points over you.  
• If The Chorne Zhopas and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood tie, you're out.
• I'm gonna be straight forward here, it's not likely.  However a little bit of hope can pay off sometimes.

Game Over Man, Game Over

Anyone past this point is eliminated. Fight for some positioning and try to knock the winner down a notch.  Please continue setting your lineup.  I would appreciate that.  I know it's rough but there is integrity I must have.  You can of course still pick up free agents, trades will be closed after this week so I don't expect any to happen.

Things of Interest

• Clearly the game between Yuriy and D-Smith is the most important game this week.  One of them will likely be getting into playoffs.
• The East is once again on the verge of sending 3 teams to the playoffs. Go division.
• Alex is in the top 5 of scoring and has missed the playoffs.  Sucks man, luck was not on your side.
• The North has 3 teams in the bottom 5 for points for.
• The East has 3 teams in the top 6 for points for.
• There appears to be a correlation between moves made and points scored in a season.  The top 4 in moves made are in the top 5 for points scored. The lowest moves made appear to be out of playoffs, barring D-Smith and Matt getting in.
• It's hard to understand how wrong Post draft rankings are on ESPN.
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For a bit of a throwback:

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Good Luck, I'll See You Cats in the Playoffs.