Playoff Possibilities and more! Week 13!

It's the Final Regular Season Week

And some of you may be wondering, can I still get into the playoffs?  Is it  too late for me?  Can I get a first round bye?  I'm likely not going to be able to answer all of your questions, but I'll certainly try my best.

So, without further ado I present to you managers, friends - and the occasional clown - the For Reals Guys League playoff breakdown.

As It Stands Now

Let's go through these by current ranking then and see what happens.

Possible Outcomes:

#1 - DonJulios Underdogs:

• Playoffs are clinched!  The reigning champ currently holds the number one seed, and much like last year it seems to be based on a tie that could have been a loss.
• Worst Possible Outcome for you:
• You lose this game and finish 8-4-1. 
• Both The Rats Nest and Rip Lips win this week and finish 9-4. 
• You lose your first round bye as they will be a half game ahead of you.  This week is important for positioning. 
• Not great Outcome:
• You lose and The Rats Nest and/or Rip Lips ties, both teams are now 8-4-1.
• It's quite likely you will hold the Points For tiebreaker over Rip Lips (unless they score 80+ more than you and still tie.
• It's also quite likely you will not win the Points For tiebreaker against The Rats Nest. 
• In this case you would likely still keep a top-2 seed, so not a large worry.
• Really just focus on winning.  If you can't win then you have to hope at least one of The Rats Nest or Rip Lips loses for you to keep your spot.

#2 - The Rats Nest

• Playoffs clinched. Nothing else is set in stone.
• Read above for most possible outcomes.
• First seed requires a Underdogs loss and a win by The Rats Nest. 
• Third seed could happen from a loss and a win by both Rip Lips and Underdogs.
• Fourth seed could happen from a loss, a win by Mixed Thielens, and Mixed Thielens scoring 190 more than The Rats Nest (good luck).
• It is a lock for seed 1-4.

#3 - Rip Lips

• Top 3 seed with the highest points against, that's solid.
• Playoffs are clinched, division winner is clinched as well.
• Possibility to get a first round bye, you just need The Rats Nest to lose and for you to win, or for Underdogs to lose and your team to score 82+ their total for points tie breaker.
• You cannot fall below 3rd seed.
• Good luck in the playoffs dad!  You're gonna need it.

The Playoff Bubble:

From this point forward we have teams that are all very very close together.  So as opposed to doing this for each post I'm going to issue a few ground rules.

1. The absolute lowest possible W/L ratio to make the playoffs is going to be 6-7.  If you cannot make it to 6-7 you are out.
2. We will have at least two 7-6 teams, so if you can't make 7-6 you are going to have a hard time.
3. Andrew owns the points for tiebreaker as of now.  Points for is going to be very important to this determination.  

We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.

#4 - Mixed Thielens

• You've been on a tear and it has payed off.  You have made the playoffs after starting 1-5. 
• There is a very very outside chance you miss the playoffs.  Follow along this, if you will:
• You lose and drop to 7-6.
• Mustard Tigers, Burn Squad, and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood all win, bringing them to 7-6.
• Burn Squad already owns the tiebreaker.
• Mustard Tigers scores 10 more points than you.
• Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood scores 62 more points than you.
• This will knock you out of the playoffs.
• There is almost no other way for you to lose your spot.  There also does not appear to be a path available for you to make the first round bye.

#5 - Burn Squad

• You are in a very precarious situation.
• You own the tie breaker on every bubble team, so there is a bit more to it than you lose and you are out.  However if you win you are in.
• You cannot get the first round bye.
• How you may lose your playoff spot:
• Lose to drop to 6-7.
• Mustard Tigers win.
• Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood and The Chorne Zhopas tie.  You are out.
• Whichever of Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood vs. The Chorne Zhopas win, will have a 7-6 advantage over you.
• You need to win this week, or lose and hope Mustard Tigers loses as well. If he wins and you lose, you will have an uphill battle.

#6 - Mustard Tigers

• You are the bubble. I strongly suggest you win this week.
• How it may be possible that you lose your spot:
• Lose this week to drop to 6-7.
• Burn Squad just needs to score within 70 points of your score win or lose and he is in.
• One of Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood or The Chorne Zhopas win their game, or they tie.
• You are out.
• This is rather simple, you must win, and depending on the outcome of The Chorne Zhopas and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood you need to score within a range to stay in.
• If Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood wins you need to score within 52 points of their score to stay in.
• If The Chorne Zhopas win you need to score within 89 points of their score to maintain your spot.
• You are in the driver's seat, but you gotta make sure you're paying attention.  It's snowing outside and the transmission is acting up so don't blow it.

On the Outside

In the words of the ever-annoying, post-grunge, teenage angst-driven band Staind, "But I'm on the outside, I'm looking in."  There is a chance for a few of you, but it's small.  Here is what you need to get in.

#7 - Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood

• You've got a big matchup here against The Chorne Zhopas.   
• To get in here is what you must do:
• Tie/Beat The Chorne Zhopas. 
• If you win and Mustard Tigers lose, you will be in.
• If you win and Mustard Tigers win, you need to score 52+ what they score.
• If you tie and Mustard Tigers lose, you will be in.
• If you win, and mustard Tigers win, than you can take Burn Squad's place in the playoffs if he loses.
• So you're going to be hoping for a loss from Burn Squad or Mustard Tigers.  If either of them loses and you win, you're in.

#8 - The Chorne Zhopas

• Incredibly similar to Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood. Really, it may be the same.
• You need to win this week, or tie, and hope for a loss from Mustard Tigers or Burn Squad.  If this happens you are in. 
• You do not have the points necessary to win with a tie-breaker.

#9 - BB Baker's Boys

• This is complicated.  At 5-7 you need a ton of luck.  I mean a ton, this is miracle level.
• To get into the playoffs:
• Burn Squad loses, Mustard Tigers loses.
• You win.
• You will need to have the highest score I have seen to win, and hope that Mustard Tigers and Burn Squad really falls flat.
• Burn Squad has 200+ points over you.  Mustard Tiger has 130+ points over you.  
• If The Chorne Zhopas and Mr. Rodgers Neighborhood tie, you're out.
• I'm gonna be straight forward here, it's not likely.  However a little bit of hope can pay off sometimes.

Game Over Man, Game Over

Anyone past this point is eliminated. Fight for some positioning and try to knock the winner down a notch.  Please continue setting your lineup.  I would appreciate that.  I know it's rough but there is integrity I must have.  You can of course still pick up free agents, trades will be closed after this week so I don't expect any to happen.

Things of Interest

• Clearly the game between Yuriy and D-Smith is the most important game this week.  One of them will likely be getting into playoffs.
• The East is once again on the verge of sending 3 teams to the playoffs. Go division.
• Alex is in the top 5 of scoring and has missed the playoffs.  Sucks man, luck was not on your side.
• The North has 3 teams in the bottom 5 for points for.
• The East has 3 teams in the top 6 for points for.
• There appears to be a correlation between moves made and points scored in a season.  The top 4 in moves made are in the top 5 for points scored. The lowest moves made appear to be out of playoffs, barring D-Smith and Matt getting in.
• It's hard to understand how wrong Post draft rankings are on ESPN.
• 
  

For a bit of a throwback:

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Good Luck, I'll See You Cats in the Playoffs.

Week 9 Recap!

Playoff Picture:

So it's about that time, one week out of the second round of divisional matchups.  Everyone is probably wondering, can I make the playoffs?  Who do I have to root for?  Who needs to win, and who needs to lose? I'm going to do a bit of a breakdown here so you have a better idea of what is needed each week.  I'll be doing it by Division.

East:

First we can see a clear lead for the division.  Now there is four games left (counting this week which just started) and the furthest behind is 3 games back.  That means anyone can win the division, but things aren't as simple as winning and losing out.

Nic:

I can't lose out, I can only safely lose 1 game with someone else winning every game they play. If I am unable to win the division I can still get into one of the two wildcard spots, but both wildcard teams currently (Ory and D Smith) are only 1 game back from my record, with the third wildcard being 2 games back.  Something that may be important should I become a wildcard team:  I lead the league in points for (something I'll touch on later too).  With divisional matchups upcoming both Matt and Andrew cannot win out, so it will be important that I beat whoever wins their matchup which happens in week 10.

Best Record Possible: 10-3

Worst Record Possible: 6-7

Matt and Andrew:

You have the same record so I will lump you in together.  Right now you are both 2 games behind the division lead, and 1 game behind the wildcard berth.  Andrew has more points for than the two wildcard teams with a better record, but less points for than Cone who has the same record as you.   This means you'll need to beat the record of D Smith or Ory, or score more points for than Cone without losing more games.  Good news, Cone plays D Smith so one of them must lose. You really cannot afford to lose 2 games, especially as your next game is against Matt who is right in the thick of things with you. Next week will likely be your most important game of the season.

Best Record Possible: 8-5
Worst Record Possible: 4-9

Matt you are in prime position this week to tie the record with Ory for the wildcard position. You have a head-to-head matchup with him, and he's been hit pretty hard with byes.  Matt you are near the bottom of the league in points for so you need to win games to get in, you cannot rely on a tiebreaker.  A win this week, and a win next week will put you in prime position for the wildcard, especially considering that D Smith and Cone play each other in the next upcoming weeks.  You will want to root for D Smith to beat Cone, so that you can surpass his record with a few wins.

Best Record Possible: 8-5
Worst Record Possible: 4-9

Val:

You've got a heck of an uphill battle.  You're 3 games back with 4 games left.  Not every team in front of you can lose all their games, they face each other so someone has to win.  For the division title, you would need me to lose all 4 games.  Unfortunately that means that both Andrew and Matt win at least one, and one of them would win 2.  So you would be hoping for something like this: all division opponents lose this week, Matt beats Andrew, you beat me.  Matt beats me, you beat Andrew. Andrew beats me, you beat Matt all the while you are outscoring Matt every single week. That's tough. Maybe it's more likely you try and get in the wildcard. Still difficult but much more likely. So for that I'll let you know, you're 1 full game behind Cone, 2 full games behind Ory and D Smith.  You're also 0.5 games behind Alex.  You do not hold the tie breaker over anyone. That doesn't make it impossible, but it certainly makes it hard. To hold any chance I honestly believe you need to win out, or at the very least do not lose 2 games.

Best Record Possible: 7-6
Worst Record Possible: 3-10

West:

Gary (Dad):

Well you got yourself a team here huh?  You're currently one of the two teams locked in for a bye, and your top 3 in points for.  Only thing you need to be worried about is that in the top 3, you're number 3.  That means to hold onto your bye week you need to keep winning, don't tie records with either Jake or Nic.  Or score more points, whichever works better for you.  You can hold onto your playoff spot fairly easily.  To lose the division you need to lose at least 3 with Ory losing out.  You could theoretically lose to Alex as well because he has the tie, if he wins out and you lose out then you're hoping for a wildcard.  

Best Record Possible: 11-2
Worst Record Possible: 7-6

Ory:

You hold a wildcard currently.  Hold it tight, to get the division lead you may not lose more than 2 games. Realistically you can't lose more than 1 as you don't have the points for tie breaker over my dad and you'd need to score 25+ more than him every week just to make up the difference.  To hold the wildcard it's a bit simpler. Beat Alex, that's important.  Beat Matt, that's important.  Root for Andrew to lose out, and lose less than 2 games and you should be in.  You've got a path as long as it doesn't blow up.  You've also got Mahomes back and that should make things a skosh easier. 

Best Record Possible: 9-4
Worst Record Possible: 5-8

Alex:

You know, you hold the tiebreaker over every non-division leader.  You just need to get the record to get into the playoffs. So if Cone is 4-5 and in the wildcard that means you need to get above him.  Guess what opportunity you have this week?  You can beat Cone!  You can get that spot over him.  Of course your brother and Matt both stand in the way of this working out perfectly, but you control your destiny.  The only chance you have of getting the division lead is slim, you gotta win every game from this point forward, and my dad has to lose every game, and Ory can't win 2 more etc.  Think about that wildcard, and pull out all stops to win this week. This is make or break for you.

Best Record Possible: 7-5-1
Worst Record Possible: 3-9-1

Chris P:

You're in a similar spot as Val, except it's slightly more bleak for you because my dad is 7-2.  That means you need for him to lose out, Alex to beat Ory, and both Alex and Ory losing divisional matchups.  You would also need my dad's team to completely fall apart and score almost nothing for 4 weeks straight as your behind him by over 200 points for.  That's rough. Aim for a wildcard, you're only 1 game back from.  You want all wildcard teams to lose, so you should be rooting for everyone at the top of a division to beat up on their opponents while you win out. Good luck.

Best Record Possible: 7-6
Worst Record Possible: 3-10

North:

Jake:

You've got a first round bye in your hands right now. You're only holding on to it by a tie, which seems suspiciously similar to last year.  You're also second in points for by a whopping .6 points.  That's right, less than 1 whole point.  It's close.  So you've got the division opponent that is closest to you in record.  D Smith needs to win 1.5 more games than you for you to lose it.  That means, you need to win at least 2.5 games, so 2 wins and a tie to completely hold on and that's only assuming that D Smith wins out.  Because you have two wildcard teams in your division currently you have a difficult upcoming schedule, and you're only a 0.5 game lead on the bye.  So it'll come down to the wire.

Best Record Possible: 10-2-1
Worst Record Possible: 6-6-1

D-Smith:

You don't own points for, you need to win 2 more games than Jake.  That means you need Jake to lose 3, and you need to win 4.  Focus on the wildcard, you currently are tied with Ory for the top wildcard positions.  You however do not own the tiebreaker over Cone or Ory, or for that matter Andrew or Alex.  You've got to win some games, theoretically you've got to win at least 3, and the Cone game is going to be your most important of the rest of the year (outside Jake losing a couple times).  You have a clear path, but a late season collapse could easily be your downfall.

Best Record Possible: 9-4
Worst Record Possible: 5-8

Cone:

I'm going to keep this very simple for you Cone.  Win 3 or more games out of the next 4.  Do that and you are in.  You have an AWFUL bye week this week, and Alex is gunning for your position.  Lose this week and you are out and he is in. So I'll stress that importance again.  You do however hold the tiebreaker over everyone but Alex and the division leaders, so again win 3 and you'll likely be in no matter what.

Best Record Possible: 8-5
Worst Record Possible: 4-9

Yuriy:

It's tough man, 3-6 ain't the place to be.  3.5 games back means you gotta win out and Jake's gotta lose out and both divsion opponents need to...... That's likely not to happen.  You gotta win out though if you want a chance at that wildcard. You own the points for tiebreaker over almost no one, so you gotta bring your A-game.  One loss and I think you might be able to call it, so be prudent.

Best Record Possible: 7-6
Worst Record Possible: 3-10.

Objective Power Rankings: